Evaluation of alternatives of expansion and cost-benefit analysis for Lisbon Metro

VTM was initially appointed by Metropolitano de Lisboa to assess and prioritize the options for the system’s expansion. Subsequently, a cost-benefit analysis was carried out for the preferred alternative.

Four alternatives were firstly evaluated:

• The extension of the yellow line
• Extending yellow line and linking it to the green line
• Creating a new circular line, and
• The extension of the red line, with the alternatives of building 2 or 3 new stations.

To tackle this challenge, VTM used a multimodal macroscopic model that covered the whole metropolitan area, allowing the evaluation of “what-if” scenarios for each alternative in terms of estimated demand. This exercise resulted in the selection of the alternative of the creation of a circular line as the priority for the expansion plan.

As a second assignment, VTM was responsible for estimating the benefits of the chosen alternative, developing a cost-benefit analysis for a period of 30 years. This evaluation was based on the resulting demand in terms of ‘passenger*hours’ and ‘passenger*km’ for each transport mode that would be impacted by the system’s expansion, in addition to supply indicators and its emissions. Using guidelines from the European Comission, the benefits were quantified in monetary terms. Finally, in 2023, this study was reviewed by VTM considering new European guidelines, up-to-date post-pandemic figures and feedback from the European Investment Bank (EIB).

Therefore, VTM has been instrumental in the expansion project for several years. We have assisted the client throughout the process, from assessing alternative expansion options to accurately estimating the impacts of the expansion. VTM’s work has been pivotal in securing financing for the project.