Traffic outlook for the Itínere toll road portfolio

Corsair appointed VTM as its Traffic and Revenue Advisor to perform a traffic valuation of part of Itínere’s tolled motorways portfolio, comprising five concessions.

The appointment consisted of developing detailed traffic analysis and T&R projections with the following objectives:

• Have a clear and updated view of the current traffic volumes and the most likely traffic profiles on each of the portfolio’s assets on its respective concession terms
• Evaluate the socioeconomic fundamentals supporting the historical evolution of traffic
• Develop a robust analysis of each asset growth drivers, threats and opportunities
• Have a strong case for defending the proposed traffic projections before third parties (if required).

The T&R forecasts presented were mainly based on high-level econometric analyses which help understand the historical relationships between traffic evolution and the evolution of several independent explanatory variables, which are used to project future traffic trends and support the proposed natural evolution projections fo traffic, therefore maximizing the “transparency” in the forecasting process and, given its spreadsheet-based nature, streamlining “what-if” stress-testing.