Traffic and revenue study for the Rodoanel Norte concession

VTM was appointed by Acciona S.A. as the Traffic and Revenue (T&R) advisor for the concession of the northern section of São Paulo’s Rodoanel (Rodoanel Norte), located in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Rodoanel is a 177 km ring road that encircles Greater São Paulo and connects it to the main state and federal concessions reaching the metropolitan region. The completion of the northern section, scheduled for 2026, will finalize the ring, marking a significant milestone in the region’s transport infrastructure.

Our main objective was to support Acciona in the bidding process by providing an independent view on the most likely future traffic and revenue levels on the different sections of the concession. Our work was grounded in an extensive review of data, which included big data sources such as mobile phone and GPS data, public sources, tender documents, and historical T&R data from competing state and federal concessions.

The project employed a twofold modelling approach for the T&R forecasts exercise, which encompassed a network assignment model and an econometric traffic demand growth model. This complex, purpose-built model was further enhanced by incorporating big data from mobile phones and GPS providing a better understanding of mobility patterns and travel times. The model was designed to simulate the representative hour of four distinct daily periods, reflecting mobility patterns and user choices based on network loading, average travel speeds, and heavy vehicle circulation restrictions on certain roads. Our work culminated in a robust, fit-for-purpose model that offered Acciona a clear perspective on the most probable future T&R levels on the Rodoanel Norte toll road for the duration of the concession.