Traffic and revenue forecasts for the Ruta 78 concession

VTM was appointed by CINTRA Servicios de Infraestructuras, S.A. to prepare an independent traffic and revenue (T&R) forecast study for the “Santiago – San Antonio (Ruta 78) Second Highway Concession” tendered by the Ministry of Public Works of Chile (MOP). Ruta 78, also known as Autopista del Sol, is a crucial 130-kilometer highway connecting Santiago with the port of San Antonio, one of Chile’s most important ports.

Our main objective was to support the client in the bidding process by providing an independent view on the most likely future traffic and revenue levels on the Ruta 78 toll road for the concession. Our work was based on an extensive data review, including public sources, tender documents, and historical T&R data for the asset.

The project involved a twofold network- and spreadsheet-based model to assess the most likely evolution of traffic demand and revenue. We considered several factors, including the social outbreak and the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, which significantly changed travel behaviour. We also took into account planned infrastructure improvements and new intersections along the route. Our T&R forecasts were mainly based on a network assignment model and an econometric traffic demand growth model. The extensive work performed in close collaboration with the client constituted a solid technical basis for asset valuation and allowed the client to have a strong case for the tender.