T&R forecasts for I‐270 & I‐495 managed lanes [Ph1 South]

Macquarie Capital US, as part of the consortium Accelerate Maryland Partners (AMP), was awarded the concession contract by the State of Maryland to develop an infrastructure improvement project. This project, known as “The new American Legion Bridge and I-270 Traffic Relief Plan”, specifically its Phase I South, involves adding dynamic tolled managed lanes to the I-495 and I-270. The roads of the National Capital Region are among the most congested in the country, with particular sections of the I-495 and the I-270 in Maryland reaching AADT volumes well above 260.000 vehicles per day in 2019.

VTM was commissioned to prepare an investment-grade T&R forecasts study for the project in 2021. Our mandate followed previous work developed by the Client and its partners in the preparation of the bid for the tender process. Our study leveraged a wealth of legacy work that was further enhanced by additional research and analytical work. This included traffic statistics from the Maryland State Department of Transportation (MDOT), the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) Regional Macroscopic model, socioeconomic forecasts, INRIX travel time and speed data on various roads relevant to the project, data from the Streetlight portal, and TomTom Route Report. Other relevant data was also considered to provide the client with a robust and reliable T&R forecast for the project.

The project’s traffic and revenue projections were modelled using a three-pronged approach: a macroscopic regional transport model based on MWCOG’s framework, an ad hoc microscopic dynamic model implemented in VISSIM that focused on the managed lanes corridor and its alternatives, and a sophisticated spreadsheet model to represent the rest of the day’s hours. This complex, purpose-built approach, enhanced with big data from mobile phones and GPS, provided Macquarie Capital US with a clear view of the most likely future traffic and revenue levels on the I-495 and I-270 managed lanes throughout the concession period.